Following the release of China’s first-half economic data, major foreign financial institutions, including UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Nomura, have revised up their 2025 full-year GDP growth forecasts for China, signaling growing confidence in the country’s economic trajectory amid global uncertainties.
Buoyed by the resilient performance in the second quarter (Q2), these institutions cite export resilience, fiscal front-loading, and better-than-expected economic data as key drivers.
Despite rising challenges and external uncertainties, China achieved steady economic growth in the first half of the year (H1) and is actively taking steps to maintain stability and sustain momentum in the months ahead.
China’s GDP grew 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Tuesday. In Q2, the country’s GDP expanded 5.2 percent year-on-year.
Amid increasing external challenges with shifting trade policies and regional conflicts, China not only maintained growth momentum but also demonstrated solid strategic resilience, Denis Depoux, Global Managing Director of Roland Berger said in a statement to the Global Times on Wednesday.
In the first half of 2025, China’s GDP expanded 5.3 percent. It showcased the pragmatism and wisdom for China to turn challenges into opportunities, according to Depoux.
The first-half GDP growth was supported by resilient exports, the stimulus from trade-in subsidies amid a low-base effect, the early issuance of government bonds, and the implementation of planned policy support measures. Overall, we have upgraded our full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.7 percent, UBS Investment Bank Senior China Economist Zhang Ning, said in a research paper sent to the Global Times on Wednesday.
China’s real GDP growth reached 5.2 percent year-on-year in Q2, stronger than the market expectation of 5.1 percent and our tracking estimate of around 5 percent, Morgan Stanley said in a research paper sent to the Global Times on Wednesday.
“This positive outcome is driven by export resilience and notable fiscal front-loading to support infrastructure and consumption trade-in programs. The 2Q beat has lifted our full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8 percent,” Morgan Stanley said.
Data released by the NBS on Tuesday showed that domestic demand contributed 68.8 percent to GDP growth during the period, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52 percent, making it the main driver of growth. In the first five months of the year, the trade-in program generated 1.1 trillion yuan ($153 billion) in sales, data from the Ministry of Commerce showed.
The consumer goods trade-in program looks to have been effective in boosting consumption, and the scheme will likely continue to support consumption, Standard Chartered said in a report sent to the Global Times on Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs said in a research paper that “China’s Q2 GDP came in slightly above market consensus (though in line with our forecast) amid mixed June activity data.” And with “Onboarding Q2 GDP outturns and NBS revisions to historical data while maintaining our sequential growth forecasts for coming quarters, our 2025/26 full-year real GDP growth forecasts have been mechanically raised to 4.7 percent.”
Nomura also revised up its 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, citing better-than-expected real GDP growth in Q2, according to a research paper sent to the Global Times on Wednesday.
Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the NBS, noted that while most international institutions and investment banks are forecasting a global economic slowdown in the second half of the year, they have collectively chosen to upgrade China’s growth forecasts. This, he emphasized, reflects their growing confidence in China’s economic trajectory.
Upbeat on Chinese market
Foreign engagement in China’s markets intensified in the first half of 2025, driven by deepening opening-up efforts.
China advanced capital market liberalization this year, introducing policies refining systems for qualified foreign investors, expanding investment scopes, and enhancing participation access.
In the first quarter, five new foreign-owned securities institutions were established, bringing the total number of foreign-controlled or wholly foreign-owned brokers to 10; qualified foreign institutional investors reached 944, up 18 this year. Foreign capital holdings in A-shares via northbound channels hit 2.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an 87.1 billion yuan increase from the end of 2024, according to China Media Group (CMG).
This commitment to China is also reflected in foreign-invested enterprises leveraging their technological advantages with China’s industrial support strengths.
Multinational engineering giant ABB recently launched three new robot series to meet rising demand in China’s fast-growth sectors. This strategic expansion comes amid a boom in China’s mid-range robot market.
“China is not just the world’s largest industrial robot market, but our most important globally. The robust development of China’s electronics manufacturing and other industries, as well as a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, is fueling strong demand for easy-to-use automation solutions. We are actively responding to this trend,” the company said in a statement to the Global Times.
Foreign enterprises also posted strong trade results, with import-export value rising 2.4 percent year-on-year to 6.32 trillion yuan, marking five consecutive quarters of growth, according to CMG.